Analysis of China's industrial energy conservation

2022-09-30
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Analysis on the situation of China's industrial energy conservation and emission reduction in 2014

in 2013, under the environment of slow economic recovery at home and abroad, China's total industrial energy consumption increased rapidly, and the decline of energy consumption per unit of industrial added value slowed down, making it very difficult to achieve the annual energy conservation and emission reduction target. Looking forward to 2014, as the economic development situation at home and abroad tends to be stable, China's industrial economy will maintain steady growth. When the industrial energy conservation goals and tasks in 2013 may not be completed, the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction will be more severe

I. Basic Judgment on the situation in 2014

(I) the industrial economy grew steadily, but the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction was severe

in the first three quarters of 2013, China's economy showed positive changes of steady growth and steady improvement. In June, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.7% year-on-year With the recovery of industrial economy, industrial power consumption increased rapidly (Figure 1). In January, the national industrial power consumption was 3140.2 billion kwh, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, accounting for 71.7% of the total social power consumption

in 2014, China's industrial energy conservation and emission reduction will face great pressure under the expectation of steady industrial economic growth. First of all, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.6% in 2014, which will be slightly higher than this year's growth level, and the overall situation will tend to be stable. China's economy will maintain a growth rate of more than 7%, and industry, as the main body of the national economy, will also maintain a rapid growth rate. Secondly, from the change of industrial power consumption elasticity coefficient, it showed a gradual upward trend in 2013 (Figure 2), and the decline of energy consumption per unit of industrial added value gradually narrowed, indicating that the capacity and space of energy conservation and emission reduction are in a declining state. I. 1 Mechanical properties include strength, elasticity, plasticity, creep, fatigue, etc; The energy consumption per unit of industrial added value decreased by 7% in the quarter, 6% in the second quarter, and further narrowed to about 5% in the third quarter. With the stabilization and recovery of the industrial economy, it is extremely difficult to achieve the target of 5% reduction this year, and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction will inevitably be transmitted to 2014

(II) the proportion of electricity consumption in the four high load energy industries continues to decline, and the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction is gradually emerging.

looking forward to 2014, the proportion of electricity consumption in the four high load energy industries is expected to continue to decline, and the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction is gradually emerging. First of all, from the perspective of energy consumption in key energy consumption industries, the total electricity consumption of the four high-energy industries, including chemical industry, building materials, steel and nonferrous metals, accounted for 31.1% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society in January 2013, significantly lower than the same period last year (33%). With the further promotion of industrial restructuring, it is expected that the proportion of energy consumption in high-energy industries will continue to decline in 2014. Secondly, the elimination of backward production capacity was carried out in an orderly manner as planned. In 2013, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the list of three consecutive batches of enterprises with backward production capacity to be eliminated in industrial industries, involving 19 industrial industries such as iron making, steel making, coke, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, electrolytic aluminum, copper smelting, lead smelting, etc., and required relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) to take effective measures to strive to shut down the backward production capacity of enterprises listed in the announcement list on time, so as to ensure the removal and elimination on time, The target task of eliminating backward production capacity in the 12th Five Year Plan is expected to be completed ahead of schedule. Thirdly, strategic emerging industries have entered the fast lane of development. The recently released report on the development of China's strategic emerging industries (2014) points out that in the three years since the State Council issued the decision on accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, China's macro policy environment for cultivating and developing strategic emerging industries has been continuously improved, and the scale of related industries has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 15%, which is gradually becoming a way of transformation, structural adjustment An important force for steady growth

(III) energy consumption in the western region continues to maintain rapid growth, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is becoming more and more serious.

the growth rate of power consumption in the western region will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2014, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction will be more severe. According to the "barometer of the achievement of energy conservation goals in the first three quarters of 2013 in all regions", compared with the average annual energy conservation tasks in the three years after the 12th Five Year Plan, the early warning level of Hainan, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other three regions in the first three quarters was level 1, and the energy conservation situation was very serious; The early warning level of Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai and other eight regions is level II, and the energy-saving situation is relatively severe. Compared with the progress requirements of energy conservation in the 12th Five Year Plan, the early warning level of Hainan, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other four regions is level 1, and the early warning level of Yunnan is level 2

from a macro perspective, the western region is in the period of rapid industrialization, and the eastern coastal region is in the middle and late stage of industrialization. The pattern of rapid industrial economic growth in the West and slow growth in the East will continue for some time to come. According to the 2013 third quarter report released by all provinces, the provinces with faster growth rate are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, especially in the west, and 10% has almost become the watershed between the East and the central and western regions. From a micro perspective, the rapid economic growth will inevitably drive the rapid increase of energy consumption. In the first three quarters of 2013, the power consumption in the western region maintained a high growth, and the power consumption in the eastern, central, Western and northeast regions increased by 6.4%, 6.8%, 9.8% and 4.4% respectively year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of power consumption in the western region has remained high

(IV) the competition to cope with climate change is intensifying, and the requirements for industrial energy conservation and emission reduction are higher.

in 2014, the international competition to cope with climate change will be more intense. On November 11, 2013, the 19th conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change and the 9th Conference of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol opened, and relevant negotiations made progress, but the differences between the parties are also difficult to ignore. Developed countries have shown varying degrees of negative attitudes towards the call of developing countries to implement their original commitments. Japan announced on November 15, 2013 that its 2020 emissions target was revised from the previously promised 25% reduction in 1990 to a 3.1% increase in emissions on 1990 The EU expressed disappointment, but it is still unlikely that the EU will raise its emission reduction target before 2020. At the same time, although the International Civil Aviation Organization rejected the EU's proposal to unilaterally impose an aviation carbon tax, the EU recently reiterated the proposal to impose emissions charges on foreign airlines flying over European airspace

on the whole, China is still in the period of rapid development of industrialization, but at present, carbon dioxide emissions have ranked first in the world, and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction needs to be significantly increased. At present, the energy consumption of China's industrial development is high. In order to adapt to the current trend of world economy and international trade development, cope with climate change, and enhance the competitiveness of China's industrial sector, we must continue to improve the level of energy conservation and emission reduction in the industrial sector in the two years after the 12th Five Year Plan

(V) implement the action plan for air pollution prevention and control, and the emission reduction of major pollutants is unprecedented.

the problem of air pollution is not only caused by the fact that China is still in the middle and late stage of rapid industrialization, the extensive mode of economic development, and the unreasonable industrial structure and energy structure, but also by the factors of static and inverse temperature and other meteorological conditions, but also related to the weak ability of air pollution prevention and control, the imperfect legal system and mechanism, etc. To this end, the State Council has studied and deployed ten measures for the prevention and control of air pollution, issued the action plan for the prevention and control of air pollution (hereinafter referred to as the plan), and put forward the goal of improving the overall air quality of the country and greatly reducing the heavily polluted weather after five years of efforts

looking forward to 2014, the plan will be gradually implemented, and the emission reduction of major pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides will also be unprecedented. At present, the Ministry of environmental protection has proposed to do a good job in six aspects as soon as possible: first, jointly issue the implementation rules for the implementation of the action plan for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas; Second, decompose the objectives and tasks, and draft the air pollution prevention and control objectives; Third, refine supporting policies and measures, and formulate 20 supporting policies to be issued in 2013 and the first half of 2014; Fourth, actively do a good job in the publicity and reporting of the ten atmospheric articles; Fifth, improve the monitoring, early warning and emergency response system, and jointly issue the work plan for heavy pollution weather monitoring and early warning in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas with the Meteorological Bureau; Sixth, strengthen the law enforcement and supervision of atmospheric environment

(VI) the energy conservation and environmental protection industry has ushered in a period of rapid development, and the promotion and application of energy conservation and environmental protection products have been accelerated.

accelerating the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry is of great significance to stimulate investment and consumption, form new economic growth points, promote industrial upgrading and the transformation of development mode, and promote energy conservation, emission reduction and people's improvement. To this end, the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry (hereinafter referred to as the opinions), which proposed to achieve the goal of an average annual growth rate of more than 15% of the output value of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry by promoting the overall improvement of the development level of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, leading social funds to invest in the construction of energy conservation and environmental protection projects, promoting energy conservation and environmental protection products, improving the market competitiveness of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry, and creating a favorable market and policy environment

in 2014, the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will accelerate its development under the promotion of a series of policies and measures. First of all, in order to implement the opinions, relevant departments are studying and formulating the implementation plan for the industrialization of major technical equipment and products in energy conservation, environmental protection, resource recycling and other industries, and strengthening the promotion and application of energy conservation and environmental protection products. Secondly, with the implementation of the relevant opinions of the State Council on strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction of internal combustion engines and the launch of the special action of the Ministry of industry and information technology on energy conservation and green, it will also promote the improvement of the energy efficiency level of internal combustion engines, motors and industrial boilers in China. Third, in order to improve the emission reduction technology level of key industries, the Ministry of environmental protection has organized the formulation and release of pollution prevention and control technology policy documents for cement, steel, sulfuric acid and volatile organic compounds related industries

II. Several issues that need attention

(I) driven by the heavy industrial structure, the total energy consumption is difficult to control

in 2014, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy industry may still be faster than that of light industry, and the heavy industrial structure will continue to drive the rapid growth of total industrial energy consumption, which will affect the realization of the total energy consumption control goal in China. From the perspective of development trend, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy industry has been faster than that of light industry for 13 consecutive months since August 2012. In August 2013, the trend of light and light industries was significantly differentiated, with heavy industry rising by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, becoming the main driving force for the overall industrial recovery, while the growth of light industry slowed down by 2.4 percentage points. At the same time, the proportion of energy consumption in heavy industry is still too large. In 2013, the power consumption of heavy industry accounted for 83.3% of the total industrial power consumption, among which the power consumption of four high energy carrying industries, including chemical industry, building materials, steel and nonferrous metals, accounted for 42.7% of the total industrial power consumption

(II) the phenomenon of overcapacity is serious, restraining the endogenous driving force of energy conservation and emission reduction of enterprises

the contradiction of overcapacity in some industries will continue to affect energy conservation and emission reduction of enterprises in 2014. According to the survey of overcapacity in the industry of 3545 enterprises by China's macroeconomic information, 71% of enterprises believe that the current overcapacity is very serious or relatively serious, and the utilization rate of enterprise equipment is only 72%, 0.7 percentage points lower than last year. At the same time, overcapacity is characterized by a wide range of industries and a high degree of absolute overcapacity. Due to local protection and the lack of an effective exit mechanism, the adjustment of excess capacity has progressed slowly. 67.7% of enterprises believe that it will take at least three years to digest the current excess capacity. Under the condition that the downward pressure on the price of industrial products remains unabated and the demand is difficult to rise sharply at the other end, the overall profit improvement space of industrial enterprises is limited. When the enterprise benefits are not good, there is no fund for energy conservation and emission reduction, resulting in insufficient endogenous power for energy conservation and emission reduction of industrial enterprises, especially high energy consuming enterprises

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